内容导读：April30thelasttradingdaybeforeLabourDayholidayPennslammer38000Thecorrectionofthemassentrepreneurshipandi...……
April 30 the last trading day before Labour Day holidayPennslammer38000The correction of the mass entrepreneurship and innovation index is relatively large. On the market, stocks rose less and fell more throughout the day. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.Pennslammer38000.26% at 3104.82 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.9%, the gem Index fell 1.55%, the Northern Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.12%, the Wande Micro-disk Index fell 0.57%, and Wande An and mass entrepreneurship and innovation collectively fell. A-shares had a turnover of 1.04 trillion yuan throughout the day, slightly lower than the previous month, while northbound funds sold a net 8.6 billion yuan.
On the last trading day before the festival, the home appliance sector rebounded sharply, and home appliance ETF (159996) rebounded by 2.08%. In fact, the home appliance index has risen 15.64% this year, and the home appliance industry is also the first-tier industry with the highest increase so far this year.
On the one hand, the quality of the plate is good, and the first-quarter performance of the home appliance leader is higher than expected, and the boom is expected to continue; on the other hand, the home appliance plate has the advantage of high dividend yield, with a dividend yield of 3.48% in 2023, ranking fifth in Shenwan's first-tier industry. Considering that the development of the domestic white power industry has entered a relatively mature stage, the pattern is relatively stable, its terminal sales price fluctuates less than that of commodities, and the relevant leading companies have steady growth and stable cash flow, which is expected to maintain a stable dividend strategy. The household appliance sector has a better dividend yield than the consumer sector as a whole, and has more stable profitability than the cyclical sector, attracting safe-haven capital inflows.
On the news side, Gree Electric Appliances announced on April 28th that Gree Electric Appliances will invest 3 billion yuan to start the trade-in activities for household electrical appliances. Gree's investment in trade-in activities is expected to directly enhance consumers' willingness to replace air conditioners and stimulate demand for renewal. As household appliance enterprises take the initiative to provide financial support for the trade-in policy, it is expected that local governments and some household appliance enterprises will also introduce corresponding policies to support, or become an important stimulus policy for domestic demand. In terms of the real estate chain, with the gradual release of purchase restrictions in first-and second-tier cities, the real estate sector is expected to continue to repair, or will be good for white electricity, kitchen electricity and other home appliances with strong real estate post-cycle attributes of the home appliance plate valuation repair.
In terms of fundamentals, the leading household appliances exceeded expectations in the first quarter, and the boom is expected to continue according to May production data. 2024Q1, Haier Zhijia's net profit was 4.773 billion yuan, up 20.16% over the same period last year, Midea deducted 9.2 billion yuan, up 20.39% from the same period last year, and Gree Electric Appliance deducted 4.525 billion yuan, up 21.55% from the same period last year.
According to industry online data, the total production of 37.75 million empty ice washes in May increased by 15.2% over 23 years of production. 22.77 million air conditioners were scheduled for May, of which 13.9 million units were sold domestically, up 10.0 percent over the same period in 23 years, and 8.87 million units were sold abroad, which was 33.8 percent higher than that in the same period of 23 years. In May, 3.82 million refrigerators were sold domestically, an increase of 10.6 percent over the same period last year, and 4.68 million for export, an increase of 9.7 percent over the same period last year. The domestic production of washing machines was 3.26 million, up 6.4 percent, and that of export was 3.22 million, an increase of 1.3 percent over the same period last year.
Looking forward to the follow-up export situation, from the inventory point of view, the absolute value of American home appliance inventory has dropped significantly from the high level, and the inventory-to-sales ratio is even lower than the average level before 2020, and the inventory situation of American home appliance retailers as a whole is still in a benign position. The last round of replenishment has brought about a year-on-year increase in orders for China's white power enterprises, and in terms of the export chain, China's home appliance exports are expected to continue to recover.
At present, export has a high bearing, domestic sales are expected to recover steadily, the overall demand side is expected to be better than 2021-2022, its performance stability and high dividend characteristics are expected to promote the upward return of the valuation center.
Film and television ETF (516620) closed down 1.43% today, May 1 is approaching, the box office is expected to hit a new high; domestic Vincent video model Vidu release, is expected to match the standard Sora.
At present, the curtain of May 1st stalls has begun, with the previous 23-year summer stalls, 24-year New Year's Day stalls, Spring Festival stalls and Qingming Festival stalls all setting new records at the box office in Chinese film history. As the third longest holiday of the year, May 1 is expected to continue the recovery of the film market. According to China Newsweek, the eight films finally scheduled for May Day are "siege of Kowloon walled City", "peacekeeping and Anti-riot team", "Spy every Family Code: Bai", "nothing that can't be solved by Hot Pot", "Hal's Mobile Castle", "spending money at the end", "Journey through the Moon" and "Pig Man movie Star Action". The production side of the May 1st film involves a number of A-share film and television listed companies, if the box office performance is good, the relevant targets are expected to benefit. Previously, the total box office in the market in the same period was the highest in 2021 (1.674 billion yuan), and the recent box office forecasts given by many media organizations exceeded that value. (reference to specific products or companies is only to illustrate the point of view of the industry and does not constitute investment advice, the same below)
The allocation of public funds in the media is still at a historically low level, but 24Q1 film and television positions have increased significantly compared with the previous month. According to Galaxy Securities statistics, the proportion of the entire media industry of 24Q1 in the heavy position of public offering funds is 0.95%, and the low allocation is 0.9%, which is still at a historically low level, slightly rising from the historical bottom of 22Q3. In the various sub-sectors of the media, film and television accounted for 19.76%, a substantial increase in 10.57pct compared with 23Q4, and the amount of heavy holdings also increased by 136.81% month-on-month.
In terms of AI, the market continues to pay attention to the development of AIGC and the productivity innovation it may bring to the industry. At the Zhongguancun Forum on the 27th of this month, Sheng Mathematical Science and Technology and Tsinghua University jointly released the Vidu Wensheng video model, comprehensively calibrating OpenAI's previously released Sora. According to the official generated video, Vidu has been able to simulate the physics of the formal world to a considerable extent, and maintain the consistency of the generator, but there is still a gap between Sora and Sora in terms of fidelity and video length. According to the publisher, Vidu's model architecture is also based on Transformer + Diffusion and should be able to achieve the effect of the current version of Sora this year, and its technical papers have been included in CVPR 2023. The continuous maturity of AIGC and the landing of applications are expected to enable the industry to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Interested investors can pay attention to the future investment opportunities of ETF (516620).
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Today's semiconductor chip correction, semiconductor device ETF (159516) closed down 1.89%, chip ETF (512760) closed down 1.37%.
At present, from the downstream point of view, the demand for AI-related semiconductors is the strongest, while AIPC and AI smartphones are hot recently and have a strong certainty to enhance the overall demand of the industry in the long run. According to earning call of TSMC 24Q1, the company's judgment on the downstream demand side is that the smartphone and PC market is not recovering fast (original: smartphone: gradual recovery; PC: recovery is slower), demand for AI-related data centers is strong (original: very, very strong), but demand for traditional servers is slowing. Based on this, TSMC lowered its growth forecast for the semiconductor industry except storage from 10 per cent to the medium to high single digits. With regard to the mobile phone and PC market, TSMC also pointed out that with the accession of AI, the size of the chip will increase (already happening), and the replacement cycle will be faster (not yet, but more certain), so the overall demand for the company's N3 process chips will increase significantly.
In addition, at the NEPCON China 2024 conference held on the 24th of this month, industry insiders pointed out that as a barometer of the semiconductor industry, the closed testing field has been gradually thawed, and the future terminal applications and vast local market will provide more market space for the industry.
In terms of valuation, the current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI semiconductor materials and equipment theme index is 43.54x, ranking in the 36.47% percentile of the past five years, while the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the China Trading Services semiconductor chip industry index is 64.03x, ranking in the 51.37% percentile over the past five years. Interested investors can focus on future investment opportunities for semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) and chip ETF (512760).
Contributing author: Cathay Pacific Foundation